liner

Matt Theriault

### Analysis of Claims Regarding American Cities' Conditions and Future

This report provides a detailed fact-check of the claims made in the video transcript concerning the current state and future prospects of several major American cities, comparing them with selected international cities. The analysis incorporates recent data on population trends, economic indicators, crime rates, and urban conditions.

### Tucker Carlson's Statements on American Cities and California

Tucker Carlson has stated that immigration contributed to California becoming a "slum". He also claimed that America's cities are "collapsing" due to issues like burning buildings, vanishing law enforcement, and rampant criminal mobs. Carlson views the condition of American cities as a measure of the country's health and asserts that a lack of cleanliness and order signifies a societal decline, emphasizing that "cleanliness is next to godliness". He has argued that problems like litter are more fundamental than constitutional issues, suggesting a breakdown in basic civic responsibility.

### Philadelphia

Philadelphia faces significant socio-economic challenges, with approximately 25% of children under 18 living in poverty, a figure higher than the national average of 16% ((297)) ((298)) ((299)). Some reports indicate that up to 32% of children in Philadelphia live in poverty ((300)). The opioid crisis has severely impacted neighborhoods like Kensington Avenue, which has become a focal point of the epidemic and is described as an "open-air drug market" ((301)) ((303)) ((304)) ((308)). From 2015 to 2019, Kensington experienced over 630 fatal overdoses within a 1.4-square-mile area ((301)).

Regarding car thefts, the claim that they jumped 70% in one year is inaccurate. In 2024, Philadelphia recorded around 14,000 stolen cars, representing a 36% reduction from the previous year ((311)). Carjackings also decreased by 35% from 822 in the previous year to 531 in 2024 ((311)) ((314)). However, over 6,000 vehicle break-ins were reported in 2024 ((313)).

Philadelphia's population increased slightly between July 2023 and July 2024 due to international arrivals ((272)) ((273)) ((275)). Over 21,300 immigrants moved to the city during this period ((273)) ((275)). Concurrently, 15,300 U.S.-born residents left Philadelphia, indicating a net domestic migration loss ((273)) ((275)). This means international migration is offsetting the departure of domestic residents ((273)).

### New York City

New York City is projected to face substantial budget deficits in the coming years. While the transcript mentions a $10 billion deficit by 2028, the city's Office of Management and Budget projects deficits of $5.74 billion in fiscal year 2028, and the Independent Budget Office estimates around $7.5 billion for the same year ((317)) ((319)). Other forecasts anticipate gaps of $7.8 billion, $10.1 billion, and $9.6 billion for fiscal years 2027 to 2029, respectively, when considering underbudgeting ((321)).

The city is indeed spending a significant amount on housing new arrivals. As of March 31, 2025, New York City had spent $3.75 billion in FY 2024 and $2.0 billion in FY 2025 on asylum seeker services ((320)). Spending on migrant services has surpassed $5 billion, with nearly $2 billion allocated specifically for housing ((318)). The claim that 146,000 Americans fled the metro area last year is supported by data showing that net domestic migration led to a loss of approximately 147,000 residents between July 2023 and July 2024 ((253)). This domestic outmigration is offset by a high level of international migration, which reached its highest levels since at least 2000, contributing to the city's overall population growth of 87,000 between July 2023 and July 2024 ((279)) ((280)).

Regarding property taxes, New York City's system shows disparities where working families, particularly homeowners in smaller residential properties, may face higher effective tax rates than luxury property owners in Manhattan ((323)) ((324)) ((325)). The average effective tax rate for rental properties is 4.3%, compared to 3.0% for homeowners ((323)). This is due to assessment methodologies and various exemptions and abatements ((325)).

### Chicago

In 2024, Chicago recorded between 572 and 573 murders, which is a decrease from prior years but still among the highest absolute numbers for any major U.S. city ((329)) ((330)) ((331)) ((339)). While Chicago has the highest total number of homicides, its murder rate per capita is lower than some other cities, such as St. Louis (53.9 per 100,000) and New Orleans (51.3 per 100,000) ((332)) ((333)).

The claim that the murder rate for Black residents in Chicago is 20 times higher than for white residents is accurate ((334)) ((336)). Black Chicagoans are 20 to 22 times more likely to be victims of homicide compared to white residents ((335)) ((336)).

The Chicago Police Department (CPD) faces a staffing shortage, with approximately 1,300 to 1,600 officers short of its budgeted strength ((340)) ((344)). In 2023, the CPD spent $293 million on overtime, a 40% increase from 2022 ((342)). While car thefts did reach record highs in 2023, more than tripling pre-pandemic levels, data from 2024 shows a 27% drop in motor vehicle thefts and a 26% decrease in carjackings compared to 2023 ((345)) ((346)) ((348)) ((349)). However, carjackings in 2024 were still nearly double pre-pandemic levels ((350)).

Chicago is indeed facing a significant budget gap, with a projected $982.4 million deficit for fiscal year 2025 ((2)) ((5)) ((126)) ((128)). The city's budget has grown by over $6 billion (a 58% increase) since 2019, reaching $16.6 billion in total expenditures in 2024 ((4)) ((6)). The city's sales tax rate of 10.25% is among the highest for major U.S. cities. Since 2020, Chicago has seen approximately 347,000 people leave the area due to domestic outmigration. However, this outmigration has been partially offset by the arrival of about 238,000 international immigrants since 2020, with over 96,000 international migrants arriving in 2024 ((282)) ((283)) ((284)) ((285)) ((286)).

### San Francisco

San Francisco's commercial office vacancy rate is higher than the 28.4% mentioned in the transcript. Recent data from Q1 and Q2 2025 show the vacancy rate ranging from 34.7% to 35.8%, with a slight drop to 35.1% by Q2 2025 ((351)) ((353)) ((354)) ((355)) ((356)). Since 2018, 156 corporate headquarters have indeed left the Bay Area, which includes San Francisco ((352)).

San Francisco's annual budget for fiscal year 2025 is approximately $15.9 billion. The city is facing a budget deficit of nearly $800 million for fiscal years 2025-2026 ((358)). San Francisco's per capita spending on homelessness is notably high, averaging about $141,852 per homeless person ((252)) ((363)). The 2024 Point-in-Time count identified 8,323 homeless individuals in San Francisco, which represents a 7% increase since 2022 and is considered one of the highest per-capita rates in the country ((160)) ((197)) ((364)). Since 2019, approximately 34,000 to 45,000 residents have left San Francisco ((224)) ((225)) ((238)). This domestic outmigration has been partially compensated by international arrivals ((287)).

### Los Angeles

In Los Angeles County, the estimated number of people experiencing homelessness is 75,312, a figure confirmed by recent data ((367)) ((372)). This number is comparable to or exceeds the total population of many smaller American cities.

Los Angeles is reported to be the car theft capital of America. In 2023, over 72,700 vehicles were stolen in Los Angeles, which is more than double the number in Chicago ((373)). This averages to about 197 vehicles stolen daily ((373)). Since 2018, 106 corporate headquarters have relocated from Los Angeles, impacting local jobs and tax revenue ((378)).

The city of Los Angeles has taken significant budget actions, including workforce reductions, to address a roughly $1 billion deficit for fiscal year 2025-26 ((379)). Initial proposals involved eliminating 1,759 positions to achieve $141 million in savings ((379)). While later adjustments reduced the number of actual layoffs to over 600, cuts were made across departments such as Transportation and the Los Angeles Police Department ((378)) ((381)) ((382)) ((383)).

### Urban Conditions in New York City, Tokyo, and Dubai

**New York City (Midtown Manhattan, Penn Station, 6th Avenue at 49th Street)**
Midtown Manhattan presents a mixed picture regarding cleanliness and urban conditions ((391)). While some areas, such as the Garment District, are consistently rated as 100% clean, the city overall recorded nearly 98,000 violations for dirty sidewalks, derelict vehicles, and illegal dumping between April 2023 and March 2024 ((390)) ((392)). Crime rates in Midtown are 46% lower than the national average for overall crime, and violent crimes are 27% lower ((394)). However, violent crime and robberies have increased in the Midtown tourist hub, with robberies soaring by over 90% and felony assaults jumping by nearly 73% compared to the same period in 2023 ((395)). Penn Station is widely described as a "dreary mess," "claustrophobic, confusing, and decaying," and has faced issues with cleanliness and homeless individuals ((398)) ((400)) ((402)). The surrounding area near Penn Station is congested and drab ((404)). At 6th Avenue at 49th Street, there are ongoing efforts for street cleaning, but reports indicate serious infractions such as pest issues and broken doors in the vicinity ((406)) ((408)).

**Tokyo**
Tokyo is recognized globally for its exceptional cleanliness, even with a scarcity of public trash cans ((409)) ((411)) ((412)) ((414)). Public spaces, including streets, train stations, and toilets, are remarkably clean ((414)). This is supported by high societal standards of cleanliness and effective waste management ((409)) ((410)) ((413)). Tokyo also boasts one of the lowest crime rates in the world, with violent crime incidents being rare ((416)) ((417)) ((418)) ((419)). Its intentional homicide rate is 0.2 per 100,000 people, which is 30 times lower than the U.S. ((417)). The city is known for its safety, with theft being the primary concern for visitors ((418)).

**Dubai**
Dubai has been consistently ranked as one of the cleanest cities in the world, securing the top position for five consecutive years in the Global Power City Index ((421)) ((422)) ((423)). This is maintained through a large workforce of over 3,200 cleaners and more than 800 modern vehicles dedicated to hygiene ((424)). Dubai also has a very low crime rate, with a safety index of 83.5 and a crime index of 16.5, according to Numbeo ((425)). Violent criminal acts are rare ((429)). Despite rapid urbanization leading to issues like strained resources and social inequalities, the city maintains high standards of public safety and cleanliness ((430)) ((432)).

### Rising Cities

**Dallas-Fort Worth**
Between 2018 and 2024, Dallas-Fort Worth attracted 100 corporate headquarters relocations, the highest number among U.S. metropolitan areas ((435)) ((436)) ((437)) ((438)). This growth has resulted in public companies based in the Metroplex having a combined value of $1.5 trillion ((435)) ((436)). However, by 2032, it is projected that only 21% of available apartments will be affordable for the typical Dallas worker, and less than 2% of homes will be affordable for families earning the median income, potentially pricing median-income buyers out of 98% of homes ((434)).

**Charlotte**
Charlotte has experienced significant financial job growth, with a 48% increase in finance and insurance occupations since 2015 ((441)). In 2024, Charlotte recorded 110 homicides, an increase from the previous year, but fewer than in 2020 ((440)) ((442)). The transcript's claim of a 36% spike in homicides last year aligns with an observed increase in recent years.

**Columbus**
Intel is investing over $28 billion to construct two new chip factories in New Albany, a suburb of Columbus, Ohio ((267)) ((268)) ((446)) ((447)) ((448)). This significant investment is expected to create a substantial demand for housing. Housing advocates estimate a need for approximately 50,000 affordable housing units in the area, as there is already a shortage ((449)).

**Tampa**
Tampa has seen a notable slowdown in net migration. Its net inflow of migrants dropped by 70% year-over-year, from approximately 34,000 residents in 2023 to about 10,000 in early 2024 ((262)) ((450)) ((451)) ((452)). This marks the largest slowdown in domestic migration in the country for 2024 ((451)).

**Nashville**
Nashville is characterized by rapid gentrification, being identified as the city with the most "intense" gentrification in the U.S. between 2010 and 2020 ((453)) ((454)). This has led to substantial increases in home values, with some areas seeing median home values jump from $100,170 in 2010 to $532,121 in 2020 ((453)). Consequently, only about 9% of Nashville's neighborhoods are affordable for families earning $100,000 per year ((258)). The median sale price of a home in Nashville was around $489,000 in the most recent month, trending upwards ((455)) ((456)) ((457)) ((458)) ((459)).

5 American Cities Set to Collapse By 2026 (And 5 Rising Fast)

Right now, as you're watching this, America's biggest cities are hemorrhaging people so fast it's breaking government budgets.

I'm about to show you five cities where the math has stopped working - and why Tucker Carlson says what's happening is being deliberately hidden from you.

He put it bluntly: ‘Immigration is what made California into a slum, and there’s kind of no way around that.’

It’s a statement that’s controversial, but when you see what’s actually happening in LA and beyond, you’ll see why it’s making headlines—and why most people are afraid to even say it out loud.

But while these places collapse, five other cities are quietly becoming goldmines for anyone smart enough to see what's coming. Stay with me until the end...

Look, I know you've heard the doom and gloom before. But this isn't politics - this is pure math. And the numbers I'm about to show you will change how you think about where to live, where to invest, and where to run from.

Let's start with the worst and work our way down to the shocking truth.

Number 5 - Philadelphia. And I'm starting here because what's happening in Philly is a preview of what could easily be coming everywhere else.

Picture this: Nearly 3 out of 10 kids in Philadelphia live in poverty. Not 'struggling' - actual poverty. The opioid crisis has turned entire neighborhoods into open-air drug markets. Kensington Avenue looks like a zombie apocalypse movie, and it's been that way for YEARS.

But what should terrify you - car thefts jumped 70% in one year. That's not a crime wave, that's societal breakdown.

And get this - even though the population went up slightly, it's only because of international arrivals. Over 15,000 Americans said 'screw this' and left. When your own citizens are fleeing faster than you can import new ones, you're not growing - you're replacing.

Number 4 - New York City... is about to get a very rude awakening.

NYC is staring down a $10 billion deficit by 2028. Ten. Billion. Dollars. You know what that means? Massive tax hikes are coming, and they're coming fast.

But the insane part - they're spending $4 billion a year just housing new arrivals while 146,000 Americans fled the metro area last year. Think about that math. You're taxing the people who are leaving to pay for the people who are arriving.

And if you're middle class in New York? You're getting crushed from both ends. Property taxes that are higher for working families than Manhattan luxury owners, and a cost of living that's pushing everyone who isn't rich or poor straight out of the city."

Number 3 - Chicago. The Windy City is blowing away its own future.

573 murders in 2024. That's still the highest of any major city in America. But the stat that should make your blood run cold - if you're Black in Chicago, your murder rate is 20 times higher than if you're white. Twenty times.

The police force is 1,600 officers short and burning through $293 million in overtime just to keep the lights on. Car thefts just hit a 23-year high, and carjackings are still double what they were before the pandemic.

But the real killer? A billion-dollar budget gap and the highest taxes in the nation. 347,000 people have fled since 2020, and the only reason that number isn't higher is because new immigrants are filling the empty apartments.

This is what a death spiral looks like in real time."

Number 2 - San Francisco. The city where billionaires step over homeless people on their way to work.

Get ready for this number - 28.4% commercial office vacancy rate. More than 1 in 4 office buildings are sitting empty. Since 2018, 156 corporate headquarters have said 'goodbye San Francisco.'

If commercial vacancy hits 30%, you’re on the edge of a property free fall. Mark that down.

The city has a $14.6 billion annual budget - billion with a B - and they can't keep human feces off the sidewalks. They're facing an $800 million deficit while spending more per homeless person than most Americans make in a year.

8,323 people counted as homeless this year - the highest per-capita rate in the country. And just like everywhere else, 45,000 residents have left since 2019, replaced by international arrivals who don't know what they're walking into yet.

Number 1 - Los Angeles. The American Dream's final resting place.

75,312 homeless people in LA County. That's not a typo. That's more than the entire population of most American cities living in tents, cars, and under bridges.

This is what Tucker was talking about—how a combination of mass immigration, unchecked policy failures, and runaway costs turned California’s crown jewel into what he calls ‘a slum.’

It’s not about blaming people—it’s about seeing what happens when a system gets stretched past its limits, and nobody in power is willing to admit it.